Survivorship bias

In life, as in behavior change, we are drawn to the winners. We are drawn to those who have seen success and want to mimic what they’ve done. After all, if they’ve been successful there must be a reason. Not so fast.

Survivorship bias is the logical fallacy that focuses on the behaviors or actions of those who have seen success in a particular area while ignoring the actions of those who have failed. However, many of these people are successful in spite of, rather than because of their actions. A great example is elite athletes. We want to mimic their training and nutrition when in reality we would be much better off copying their genes. An elite athlete can train like shit and eat hot garbage and still be better than me and you at every step. Sorry.

Those transformation pics you see online? Sure, they worked hard. They did the boring things over and over and became masters at the basics. But they also had a proclivity for what we did. They were either hyper-analytical or had not before used a cognitive approach to changing their habits. Many of them saw massive change in a short amount of time. If I looked to them and had clients mimic what they do it would be simple: just follow the plan. It’s that easy, right?

Except people aren’t equations. There are mental and emotional transformations that are much more important for the long term but they don’t show up on camera. The ones who might only lose 20lbs but improve metabolic health and live a healthier, happier life are the ones we should be looking to. What are they doing to succeed? Where do they struggle? Because the likelihood of changing behaviors on a grand scale is to focus on the struggles of the masses rather than the successes of the few.

Don’t ignore the strengths of the successful. But don’t be overly enamored by them either. Much of success is luck and circumstance and being able to capitalize. If you weren’t born with great genetics and raised in an environment that set you up for success, you might have to work a little bit harder and do things a little bit different. And hey, if luck comes your way, take it. You know the saying about the gift horse.